Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 94559.557340 99697.842388 104832.607318 110345.426075 116093.092197 121905.414155 128223.857770
2025-09-07 86579.664521 94476.829087 102585.942852 111524.510870 121090.154461 131009.161766 142061.324875
2025-09-14 80756.446084 90556.283296 100836.907955 112404.334146 125034.982198 138385.666312 153541.967001
2025-09-21 75761.898256 86937.573707 98874.931065 112538.989504 127709.898874 144000.243838 162777.653401
2025-09-28 71692.583234 83954.002125 97259.726955 112719.184124 130132.521304 149085.142176 171216.840491
2025-10-05 69298.814393 82614.785379 97266.811494 114513.741820 134184.687354 155845.395877 181422.724809
2025-10-12 67046.077604 81258.590378 97097.974110 115966.017372 137731.825097 161953.300868 190842.735674
2025-10-19 64658.969617 79596.444019 96445.114880 116740.776792 140402.804329 166993.296320 199003.583438
2025-10-26 62151.888603 77660.733948 95355.846927 116898.455992 142267.135853 171039.282289 205978.201588
2025-11-02 60046.665691 76094.946305 94604.500074 117363.775750 144416.867244 175363.071944 213245.484111
2025-11-09 57855.478689 74328.115481 93526.976500 117361.157609 145947.268916 178915.747536 219584.176455
2025-11-16 56480.265322 73483.979708 93493.785418 118554.064934 148858.129413 184069.221367 227807.120116
2025-11-23 54442.142040 71774.844887 92378.053144 118418.389430 150175.984862 187360.620211 233881.475955
2025-11-30 53370.842591 71220.652275 92634.729191 119926.216933 153467.075242 193013.663850 242809.617197
2025-12-07 52115.420245 70384.041291 92500.466177 120918.679183 156108.778727 197882.417976 250813.839958
2025-12-14 50531.508245 69073.785681 91727.237142 121074.915281 157690.500190 201450.562538 257245.164241
2025-12-21 49058.408345 67852.883985 91018.805142 121269.215931 159285.988494 205016.265830 263671.829029
2025-12-28 48465.929321 67740.201616 91685.719341 123174.872691 163003.298841 211187.679639 273316.265816
2026-01-04 47745.080702 67430.314064 92078.095512 124716.428588 166259.833469 216801.785543 282305.800491
2026-01-11 46744.055195 66717.452892 91924.715677 125538.684864 168596.844940 221277.727941 289906.209372
2026-01-18 45507.902510 65654.225977 91284.655982 125706.024269 170082.004347 224683.759504 296182.824467
2026-01-25 44469.153055 64822.442561 90916.728844 126199.815814 171966.117451 228583.407946 303086.492799
2026-02-01 43271.052045 63740.421555 90189.104113 126197.037954 173191.948553 231644.699859 308941.665617